Appraisals compromised due to lack of comps

One only needs to see the estimates for their homes on Trulia or Zillow.com to figure out that the valuations could be off in either direction due to a lack of comparable neighborhood sales. Apparently that same issue is also impacting the work that appraisers need to do to help underwrite loans.
From CNNMoney.com:

For real estate appraisers, determining what a house is worth has become increasingly difficult, which is making it even harder for buyers to purchase homes or for homeowners to refinance. The main tool in the appraiser’s kit is the sale prices of homes in the area. If they can find similar houses nearby in similar condition that sold recently for, say, $300,000, they can assume that the home they are appraising is worth a comparable amount.But with sales volume falling, there are fewer homes with which to compare. In fact, sales of new homes crashed in January to the lowest level in 45 years, and existing home sales fell to a 12-year low.And even when there are recent sales figures, they often don’t hold up as a reliable baseline. Appraisals are estimates of market value at a given time, and with prices in free fall, values “age” quickly…

So in lieu of good sales figures, appraisers often consider contract prices, the ones first agreed to between buyers and sellers. But those are not much better because many sales don’t close.During the boom, pressure was put on appraisers to inflate values so that sales would go through. Sellers, buyers, real estate agents, loan officers and mortgage brokers all had a vested interest in getting the sale completed. So if appraisers weren’t cooperative and raise their values, they often were not selected to appraise.Now, there’s pressure on appraisers to be too conservative, so many homeowners are finding themselves unable to purchase a new home or refinance their existing mortgage.

“Lenders want the appraisal at the lower end of the range,” said Joni Herndon, a Tampa, Fla.-based appraiser. “The lender may want it at $100,000 and the appraiser thinks it’s worth closer to the high end of his or her range, say $115,000.”If the lender does reject the appraisal, one of three things usually happens. “Lenders can order a second appraisal, the seller can lower the price on the house or the buyer can come up with more cash,” according to Jim Amorin, president of the Appraisal Institute, the industry’s professional standards organization. “In some cases, none of those happens and the loan doesn’t go through.”

One way appraisers are addressing stale comps is by using a “negative time adjustment.” If a comparable property sold for $200,000 three months ago in a market where prices are falling at a 12% annualized pace, the comp can be reduced in value by 3% to reflect the market.Another option is an “automated valuation model,” which uses a mathematical formula to set home values. They establish a baseline home price by examining sales prices and the square footage of recently sold homes in the neighborhood. So if a house is 1,500 square feet in a community where the average home sells for $200 a square foot, the AVM puts the appraisal value at $300,000 and increases or decreases it as new sales data is recorded.However, these valuations don’t take into consideration a home’s condition or appearance – or even verify the square footage – so the results can be very far off.But finding accurate appraisals is more important than ever now that the Obama administration has announced its Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. The first prong of this program allows homeowners with Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae loans to refinance into current record-low rates even if they are slightly underwater, meaning they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

However, eligibility will directly hinge on appraisals: Anyone who owes more than 105% of the value of the home won’t qualify. That adds to the pressure appraisers may feel to “hit the number” so people on the bubble can slide in and refinance.

What does this mean to you? It is more important than ever to consult with your Realtor to interpret the raft of data coming from many sources. In addtion, SHOP FOR A BROKER, NOT A MORTGAGE, ask for references from Realtors as well as borrowers. Your focus should shift from shopping the price of the mortgage to shopping for the best broker. The broker will shop the market for you. Brokers shop lenders far better than you can, among other reasons, because they are in constant contact with many lenders, and know the niches where your situation fits. Your team of the Realtor in conjunction with your mortgage broker will help you develop the proper strategy to combat the difficulties of appraisal in today’s complex market.

Call today for a confidential and personal evaluation from the team of The Bremner Group.